Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
